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31 Money Apps, Products, and Tools You Should Be Using

Post by Webscout » Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:38 am

31 Money Apps, Products, and Tools You Should Be Using
We all owe a debt to Stephen Weyman of HowtoSaveMoney.ca for compiling one of the most complete lists of money-saving tools I’ve ever seen. Bonus points here for the focus on Canadian content and thoroughness in covering all aspects of money. (Via Rob Carrick-Globe and Mail Canada)
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We Oct 4/17 ‘We are going to need more lithium’

Post by Webscout » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:36 am

‘We are going to need more lithium’


SCOTT BARLOW
2 HOURS AGO
OCTOBER 11, 2017-Special to Utopia
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

The two areas where we need to worry most about the Americans' dodgy leadership are trade and foreign policy, where the president can act more or less without congressional adult supervision. In the first case, NAFTA talks are coming to a head, and Reuters is reporting that the U.S. delegation is acting as though it would prefer talks to fail,

"The Canadian leader's visit comes amid increasing acrimony over NAFTA renegotiations, with Trump making fresh threats to terminate the 23-year-old agreement and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday accusing Trump's administration of trying to sabotage the talks with 'poison pill proposals.' The NAFTA talks are likely to stall in the face of aggressive U.S. demands to sharply increase content requirements for autos and auto parts, trade experts say."

"NAFTA talks hit contentious phase as Canadian PM fights for trade pact" – Reuters

=====

In terms of foreign policy, Chinese officials were angered as U.S. Navy warships glided into disputed territory in the south China Sea.

"China complains after U.S. destroyer sails through South China Sea" – Reuters

=====

I still believe that lithium miners are a trade, not an investment, despite the rosy outlook for electric vehicles. There is no scarcity of lithium, but some degree of an investment bubble will be needed to fund production facilities to bring the element to market. Bloomberg published an excellent overview on Oct. 11,

"Rest assured, Earth has the lithium. The next dozen years will drain less than 1 percent of the reserves in the ground, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance] says. But battery makers are going to need more mines to support their production, and they'll have to build them much more quickly than anyone thought… Mining companies have promised to add 20 lithium production sites to the 16 currently operating, but the concern remains that they won't be finished in time to satisfy rising demand. … Mark Cutifani, chief executive officer of mining company Anglo American Plc, sees the opposite problem as more likely. "There are a lot of projects out there, and they'll end up oversupplying the market," he says."

"We're Going to Need More Lithium" – Bloomberg

Related: "@SBarlow_ROB Bernstein on mining investing" – (research excerpt) Twitter

=====

Today's energy sector links,

"Canadian Oil's High-Priced Run Set to End as Supply Surges" – Bloomberg

"Oil Holds Gains as OPEC Sees Recovery, Storm Curbs U.S. Output" – Bloomberg

"@chris1reuters "Price risks skewed to the upside" #Brent crude #oil to average $56 a barrel in Q1 2018, $5 above prev forecast, says @Barclays #OPEC #OOTT " – (research excerpt) Twitter

"Oil Edges Up Ahead of OPEC Report" – Fox News

=====

Tweet of the Day: "@SBarlow_ROB For those who like pinless hand grenades, [Morgan Stanley] has trade recs into earnings" – (research excerpt) Twitter

Diversion: "The top 10 concept cars unveiled at Frankfurt Motor Show 2017 " – Wallpaper
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Today-Thursday Oct 12/17

Post by Webscout » Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:06 am

Right now is ‘as good as it gets’ for oil markets


SCOTT BARLOW
1 HOUR AGO
OCTOBER 12, 2017 Special to Utopia
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

Oil markets news top financial news with, as usual, credible but conflicting reports. The International Energy Agency detailed their forecast of balanced (in terms of global supply and demand) crude markets for 2018, while Goldman Sachs predicted that this is as good as it's going to get for fundamentals,

"Global oil market seen balanced in 2018, even with rising output: IEA" – Reuters

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs argues that the third quarter of 2017 is "as good as it gets" for oil inventory draws,

"Our updated global supply-demand balance indeed shows peak stock draws in 3Q17, with their greater magnitude offset by a less constructive 4Q17 than previously expected. Our modest 2018 global surplus remains unchanged While 3Q17 stock draws will likely be as good as it gets, we believe forward fundamentals still support our year-end and 2018 Brent forecasts of $58/bbl. Key to this spot forecast is our view that OPEC, inventories and financial flows will keep the forward curve in backwardation, with producers budgeting on a 10% lower price."

"@SBarlow_ROB GS: Q3 'as good as it gets' for crude fundamentals" – (research excerpt) Twitter

"@chigrl $GS : "3Q oil fundamentals likely to be as good as it gets" #oott #oil " – (research excerpt, charts) Twitter

"Oil Market Report" – (summary) International Energy Agency

=====

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is voicing optimism regarding NAFTA talks, but sustained rumours of U.S. "poison pills" have the PM also warning that "we have to be ready for everything,"

"On NAFTA negotiations, Trudeau says Canada has to be 'ready for anything'" – CBC

"@Reuters WATCH: Trump signals he could walk away from NAFTA if talks fail reut.rs/2yF5N7S via @ReutersTV " – Reuters

"Trump's NAFTA agenda has 'poison pill proposals,' says U.S. Chamber of Commerce" – CNN

"Trudeau heads to Mexico in midst of tensions over NAFTA" – BNN

=====

General Motors executives provided a blunt reminder of the wage-limiting effects of globalization,

"Unifor leader Jerry Dias told Reuters on Wednesday that GM officials said they would ramp up production of the vehicle at two plants in Mexico that build the Equinox and a similar model, the GMC Terrain if the walkout [at the Ingersoll, Ontario facility] is not called off. "GM just told us today that they are going to ramp up production in Mexico," Unifor President Jerry Dias said by phone from Washington. "They have declared war on Canada."

"GM warns Unifor it's looking elsewhere for vehicle production amid strike" – Report on Business

====

Bloomberg highlights distinct signs of capitulation by market bears in what is not a great sign for future U.S. market performance. At some point, there will be no one else to buy,

"With the momentum driving U.S. stocks to one record after another showing few signs of breaking, even a group of money managers ranked as the most skeptical are loading up on equities. That's according to a weekly survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, which found them to be more than 90 percent long the market. They typically have a net short position averaging 93 percent, according to data going back to 2006."

"Bears Become Bulls in Unbroken U.S. Stock Market Rally" – Bloomberg

=====

Tweet of the day: "@gadfly Why you can't afford a house, in 9 charts bloom.bg/2guUFQo ' – Twitter

Diversion: "Anthony Bourdain's Upcoming Documentary Takes An Unflinching Look At The Global Food Waste Epidemic" – Fast Company
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Britain:Why You Can't Afford a House, in Nine Charts

Post by Webscout » Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:15 am

Britain:Why You Can't Afford a House, in Nine Charts
British Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to woo disenchanted voters by injecting more money into a program designed to help people onto the housing ladder.

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US indicies 2017-Interesting

Post by Webscout » Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:48 am

US indicies 2017-Interesting
Scroll down to the chart.
At first glance..note how they track each other. I wonder how this chart would look for 3-5-10 yrs etc? Is Nasdaq, home of tech the place to be...at least 50% or so of a portfolio?
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Friday-Oct 13/17

Post by Webscout » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:58 am

Citi: Risks of disorderly correction in Canadian housing market

Scott Barlow
SCOTT BARLOW
1 HOUR AGO
OCTOBER 13, 2017 special to Utopia
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

The most exhaustive report on the state of the Canadian housing market I've seen was published Thursday by Citi economist Dana Peterson.

I posted a few of the charts on social media, and, inevitably, angry reactions were everywhere as information interfered with people's emotional prior beliefs. The emotional commitment in real estate–related disaster among an admitted minority of Canadians continues to surprise.

Here are some highlights from the Citi report but, before you ask, I cannot email the report to readers – I get access to research on condition I don't distribute,

"@SBarlow_ROB More Citi: "Canada is Unlikely to Suffer a US-Style Housing Bust" – (research excerpt) Twitter

"@SBarlow_ROB Citi: Risks of disorderly correction in Canadian housing market" – (research excerpt) Twitter

"@SBarlow_ROB Great slide from Citi's Peterson, "Canada's Housing Market is Different from the United States'" – (research excerpt) Twitter

=====

Macquarie economist David Doyle described why he is "maximum underweight" the Canadian economy, "Increasing evidence of softness in 3Q reinforces our conviction to maximum underweight Canada, particularly its banks and domestic focused consumer stocks. Strength in 1H was not driven by a self-sustaining private sector activity, but rather temporary factors. There is an increasing possibility that 3Q real GDP will show a contraction. Our forecast remains for a negative quarter, a call well below the consensus (2.5%) and BoC (2.8%). As emphasized after the 2Q real GDP release, much of the 1H strength was driven by the energy sector."

"@SBarlow_ROB Macquarie's Doyle is 'maximum underweight' Canada. (consistent bear tho)" – (research excerpt) Twitter

=====

Macquarie's research team were a bit more constructive on the resource sector, detailing the commodity prices with the most positive outlooks, namely gold, silver, nickel and uranium. The analysts are also bullish on lithium, zinc and alumina but feel time is running out for rallies in these sectors,

"@SBarlow_ROB Macquarie: "our key commodity recommendations" – (table) Twitter

=====

The contentious state of NAFTA negotiations has pundits on both sides of the border predicting what happens if NAFTA ends,

"'Something close to panic': What happens if NAFTA dies" – BNN

"What Would Happen if the U.S. Withdrew From Nafta?" – New York Times

"U.S. hikes tensions in NAFTA talks with call for 'sunset clause'" – Reuters

=====

Tweet of the Day: "@Jesse_Livermore Remember when we would pull out our phones to check what markets were doing? Now we no longer need to check, bc we know the answer: NOTHING." – Twitter

Diversion: "The world's first "negative emissions" plant has begun operation—turning carbon dioxide into stone" – Quartz
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There is always something- Rosanne Rosanna Dana (Gilda Radner)

Post by Webscout » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:39 pm

If NAFTA dies, it could be painful days ahead for the TSX and loonie


DAVID BERMAN
2 HOURS AGO
OCTOBER 13, 2017
FOR Utopia
You wouldn't know from the upbeat look of the Canadian financial market that the North American free-trade agreement is dangerously close to being scrapped.

Canadian stocks have rallied more than 5 per cent over the past month, closing in on record highs. The loonie is hovering around 80 cents against the U.S. dollar, which is not far off its multiyear high. And bond yields are rising in anticipation of good domestic economic growth and higher interest rates from the Bank of Canada.

But if NAFTA dies after four rounds of unsuccessful negotiations and dismissive comments from U.S. President Donald Trump ("We'll see what happens," he said Wednesday), some observers expect the market's all's-good veneer will be replaced by something far more nerve-wracking: a diving Canadian dollar, falling stocks and loads of uncertainty about the economic impact.

A U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA before the end of this year "would come as a surprise to most investors, who appear to have become quite complacent on the ongoing NAFTA discussions," said Ian de Verteuil, head of portfolio strategy, quantitative and technical research at CIBC World Markets, in a note.

Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics, said the termination of NAFTA would be a "step into the unknown" – hardly a comforting idea for investors to mull.

"If the U.S. is determined to walk away, then they'll walk away," Mr. Ashworth said. "And then everyone suffers from that."

What should investors expect?

Some will no doubt look at Brexit as a potential template for what might happen. After Britain voted in the June, 2016, referendum to leave the European Union, financial markets were roiled. Global stocks lost $2-trillion (U.S.) in value within a day, and the British pound plunged 8 per cent and then continued to fall.

Since then, though, British stocks have rallied more than 20 per cent, suggesting that, for all the near-term concern, there wasn't actually much to get riled up about.

But the comparisons between Brexit and Canada only go so far. About 70 per cent of the revenue generated by FTSE 100 members comes from outside Britain, which means the lower pound is having a big impact on improving the competitiveness of British exporters. For companies in Canada's S&P/TSX composite index, though, just 50 per cent of revenues come from outside the country, which implies that a weaker Canadian dollar would provide less of a competitive boost.

What's more, Canada is a smaller market on the global stage, and the country's popularity with global investors tends to wane when the loonie is weak. Add trade barriers to the U.S. market and Canada's popularity could nosedive.

"Many global companies think Canada is an extension of the U.S. (with a less rambunctious and more charming Head of State), given the existence of a preferred trading agreement. This positive perspective would fall away," Mr. de Verteuil wrote.

Ultimately, though, the market's reaction will depend on what follows NAFTA. Will the termination date be years away? Will a bilateral agreement take its place? And what sort of tariffs will exporters be subjected to?

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, observed that Canada might even emerge relatively unscathed, given that it has suffered disproportionately from NAFTA with losses to its manufacturing sector.

"The hit to Canadian trade is much worse than was the case for the U.S., with all deference to the complaints coming out of the White House," Mr. Rosenberg said in an e-mail. "Remember, we were just fine with the Free Trade Agreement, but we were dragged into the talks with Mexico kicking and screaming, but to no avail."

However, markets could be rattled if investors see the termination of NAFTA as a larger sign that the U.S. government is moving away from free trade and globalization, which have helped drive corporate profits for decades. Markets might even assume that the Trump administration will turn its attention to China next.

According to Bruce Cooper, chief investment officer at TD Asset Management, investors could interpret U.S. trade policy this way: "We've dealt with target No. 1. Now there's target No. 2."

The result, he believes, is currency and market volatility, although he can't see more than a 5-per-cent decline in Canadian stocks given low interest rates and the upbeat global economic backdrop.

"The termination of NAFTA would have long-term implications, but they'd play out over a number of years," Mr. Cooper said.

In his report this week, Mr. de Verteuil said Canadian businesses wouldn't be devastated overnight but there would be "a slow bleed, over an extended period."

He singled out automotive suppliers and dairy companies as particularly vulnerable. Even Canada's big banks would likely suffer. Since the banks have offered an easy way for investors to bet on Canada when times are good, they offer an easy way to exit the country when times are turbulent – a view supported by Mr. Cooper.

As for specific companies that have benefited from NAFTA and therefore stand to lose from its termination, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland outlined two in a recent speech: auto parts manufacturer Magna International Inc. and oil driller Precision Drilling Corp.

As for companies and sectors already embroiled in a trade dispute with the United States, such as Bombardier Inc. and Canadian softwood lumber producers, they would no longer be able to count on NAFTA's Chapter 19 dispute resolution mechanism to hear their side of the story. The result, Mr. de Verteuil believes, is a "more tortuous way" through U.S. courts and the World Trade Organization.

"None of these outcomes is positive for Canada, the loonie and Canadian equities," he said.

For now, though, investors see a low probability of NAFTA being terminated.

Instead, they are relishing the bullish backdrop. Corporate profits are rising, unemployment is low, and the world's central banks are sending upbeat signals. The International Monetary Fund has boosted its growth projections for the global economy to 3.6 per cent this year and 3.7 per cent next year.

"This is the most synchronized period of growth since the financial crisis and it is flowing into corporate profits," Mr. Cooper said. "Investors are focused on these powerful fundamentals rather than the risks associated with NAFTA."

But that could change.
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Don’t wait for the fall into a bear market. It’s time to act now

Post by Webscout » Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:32 pm

Don’t wait for the fall into a bear market. It’s time to act now


GORDON PAPE Globe/Mail
SPECIAL TO UTOPIA
3 HOURS AGO
OCTOBER 16, 2017
This year's winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics admits he is nervous about the stock market.

Richard H. Thaler, who won the award in part because of his contributions to the understanding of behavioural economics, told Bloomberg: "We seem to be living in the riskiest moment of our lives, and yet the stock market seems to be napping."

There was a lot more but because his comments were fully reported in The Globe and Mail and other media I won't repeat them again. Suffice to say he doesn't like what he is seeing in Wall Street, Washington, or London, where the British are still figuring out how to cope with Brexit.

He's not the only one that has expressed concern about high share prices. Yet investors don't want to listen. The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 set more new records last week and the TSX is edging closer to a new all-time high. This train doesn't want to slow down.

There are several reasons for that. For starters, there is no sign of a recession on the horizon. Earnings so far this year have been good, interest rates are still historically low despite recent increases, global growth continues at a reasonable pace, inflation is contained, and consumer confidence is strong. None of the obvious triggers for an economic downturn are in evidence.

However, there is no question that U.S. stocks are overvalued by historic standards and the number of people expressing concern is growing. The Shiller p/e ratio for the S&P 500 is now at 31.15, higher than at any time since the 1880s except for just prior to the 2000 high-tech crash. It's even higher than just before Black Tuesday in 1929! One unexpected event could trigger a flood of sell orders and plunge us into a new bear market.

What might that tipping point be? Here are a few possibilities.

Disappointing earnings. The third-quarter earnings season has just started and so far there is every indication that results will continue to be strong. That's what this aging bull market needs to sustain itself for a little longer. But how long will that continue? According to the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve Board, the rate of GDP growth in the U.S. will slow from a projected 2.4 per cent this year to 2.1 per cent in 2018 and 2 per cent in 2019. A slowing economy may translate into decelerating corporate profits next year but that's not an immediate concern for investors.

A major international debt default. We are warned repeatedly by every international economic agency that the world is awash in debt: personal, corporate, and sovereign. So far, the market has paid little attention to the growing debt bubble. But an unexpected default, especially at the national level, could change everything. That's what happened in August 1998 when a cash-strapped Russian government devalued the ruble, defaulted on its domestic debt, and introduced a moratorium on payments to foreign creditors. Stocks plunged in response.

Collapse of a "too big to fail" company. Although the seeds of the subprime mortgage crisis were sewn years before, the trigger of the market crash of 2008 was the bankruptcy of Wall Street financial giant Lehman Brothers. Suddenly the rot that had permeated the system was revealed for all to see. Investors rushed for the exits, setting off the worst crash since the Great Depression. We're still recovering today.

Protectionism. The Smoot-Hawley Act and other protectionist measures of the 1930s did not trigger the Great Depression but they certainly exacerbated it. We appear to be headed down the same road again under the direction of a U.S. administration that is more isolationist than any we have seen in over 80 years. We've already witnessed the death of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned. NAFTA may be next. Although that would be a blow to a range of businesses, from automobile manufacturers to agriculture, tearing up the deal probably would not send stocks tumbling. But if President Trump gets into a trade battle with China, as he repeatedly threatened during the campaign, watch out.

War. Wars don't necessarily lead to a market crash. The markets digested the two Gulf wars and the invasion of Afghanistan without much distress. But a war with North Korea would be another matter entirely. It would likely involve nuclear weapons, the destruction of most or all of North Korea, the devastation of Seoul and the South Korean economy, and wreak human and economic havoc in northeast Asia. If China got involved, heaven knows where it would end. Of all the possible causes of a market collapse, this would be by far the worst.

Hopefully, none of these flashpoints will ignite in the next few months. But the possibility is always present. If you haven't bullet proofed your portfolio recently, this is the time to start.

The extreme position is to get out of equities and put everything into cash and fixed income. But my policy has never been that black-and-white. This bull market could go on for quite a while and by cashing out now you could miss some great profits.

Rather, my view has always been to diversify your investments. You can control risk to a large extent through your asset mix – the higher the percentage of fixed income and cash, the lower your exposure to the impact of a market crash.
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Today-Tues Oct 17/17

Post by Webscout » Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:00 am

‘Trade of the year’ in commodity markets


SCOTT BARLOW
3 HOURS AGO
OCTOBER 17, 2017 FOR Utopia
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

What I have yet to understand about the Bombardier Airbus deal is how, for a company where governments are seemingly involved at every stage, the deal got done when the feds are completely consumed by NAFTA negotiations and the small business tax kerfuffle. I have other questions, but that one has me stumped,

"Bombardier hands control of C Series airliner to Airbus" – Report on Business

"Airbus takes control of Bombardier CSeries in rebuff to U.S. threat" – Reuters

"Minister Bains comments on Airbus/Bombardier strategic partnership" – Government of Canada

"Bombardier Is Stuck Between Boeing and a Very Hard Place" – Businessweek (Oct. 16)

====

Morgan Stanley strategists warn that future investment returns are likely to stink,

"Strong returns today mean lower returns tomorrow: The recent rally has further depressed 10-year expected returns across regions. We estimate that a 60/40 equity/bond portfolio will earn 4.2% per annum in USD and 4.7% per annum in EUR over the next decade, near historical lows"

"@SBarlow_ROB MS: Future market returns likely to stink." – (Research excerpt) – Twitter

"@SBarlow_ROB MS "5 charts you can't miss" for low return world" – Twitter

====

Josh Brown from Ritholtz Wealth Management argues that FANG stocks are popular because investors are hedging against their own obsolescence,

"If you think Donald Trump's mentally ill outbursts on Twitter should be scaring investors, then perhaps you failed to consider the possibility that there is something even scarier out there.

"A 45 year old married father of two with a mortgage and a pair of college educations to fund. The remote yet persistent threat of a nuclear war is not what keeps him up at night….What's frying his nerves and impinging on his amygdala all day long is something far scarier, after all. He, like everyone else, is afraid that he doesn't have a future. He is petrified by the idea that the skills he's managed to build throughout the course of his life are already obsolete. .. The only way out? Invest in your own destruction. In this context, the FANG stocks are not a gimmick or a fad, they're a … life raft."

I'm keeping an open mind but this doesn't feel right to me. For one, the people most at risk of obsolescence don't have any money to invest. It also implies a degree of investor rationality that Richard Thaler just won a Noble prize for refuting.

"Just own the damn robots" – Brown, Reformed Broker

"Richard Thaler Wins the Nobel in Economics for Killing Homo Economicus" – The Atlantic

====

Bloomberg argues that long copper, short iron ore could be 2017's best trade in commodity markets,

"Three-month copper burst above $7,000 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange this week to the highest since 2014. It's gained 29 percent this year, aided by global growth, disruptions at mines, and expectations for a deficit. There's extra luster from the fervor surrounding electric vehicles… Spot ore with 62 percent content has lost 20 percent after a switchback ride that's seen it dip into the $50s a dry ton. "

"Copper's Hot, Iron's Not in Surprise Tale of Two Commodities" – Bloomberg

"Iron Ore Seen Back in $40s as China Challenges Loom in 2018" – Bloomberg

====

Tweet of the Day: "@MaximeBernier Ok, let me get this straight: :confused:This means Ottawa recently gave $372M in aid to a... European plane maker?! ":confused: – Twitter

Diversion: "Obese kids will soon outnumber underweight kids in the world" – Macleans
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There are good times to buy Canadian bank stocks; there are not bad times to own them

Post by Webscout » Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:08 am

Bank stocks are no longer cheap, but they’re still worth owning




DAVID BERMAN
16 HOURS AGO
OCTOBER 16, 2017 FOR Utopia
The great Canadian bank stock sale is over. But don't worry: There are more gains ahead.

After a five-week rally, bank stocks have jumped more than 8 per cent on average. They have now emerged as clear leaders within the S&P/TSX composite index, after briefly lagging the index earlier this year.

But valuations that were cheap by historical measures near the start of September, before the current rally kicked in, are now in line with the long-term average. While that doesn't mean that bank stocks are overpriced, it does suggest that they're no longer a steal.

If you recall, Canadian banks were going nowhere for the four-month period between May and August (inclusive), marking a curious departure from what looked to be an upbeat operating backdrop at the time.

I wrote about this apparent mismatch on Sept. 5. The Canadian economy was humming, the price of crude oil was moving up and banks had reported strong third-quarter profits that were, on average, 11 per cent higher than last year. Best of all, the Bank of Canada was raising its key interest rate, which generally increases bank profits on their loans.

Canadian bank performance
S&P/TSX compositeS&P/TSX commercial banks index
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THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
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Add an average dividend yield of 4.1 per cent, and – barring a housing market catastrophe – Canadian bank stocks looked hard to pass up.

Yet, share prices were going nowhere. At their low point, on Sept. 7, stocks were trading at levels seen in early December.

Investors appear to have recognized the big opportunity here and, five weeks later, bank stocks are no longer looking unloved.

The S&P/TSX composite commercial banks index, which consists of the Big Six banks, Laurentian Bank of Canada and Canadian Western Bank, has rallied 8.3 per cent from its September lows. The sector has outpaced the 5.6-per-cent gain in the broader Canadian market – itself an impressive feat – and demonstrated that when things are good for Canada, they're very good for the banks.

Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and National Bank of Canada, in particular, have hit record highs within the past week.

Bank stock valuations are now in line with 10-year historical averages. According to data from RBC Dominion Securities, the Big Six bank stocks trade at 11.6-times estimated 2018 profit, which is above the historical average of 10.9-times estimated profit.

Bank stocks also trade at their average historical price-to-book value of 1.8. And that 4.1-per-cent dividend yield before the rally has retreated to 3.8 per cent, attributable to rising share prices.

A nice buying opportunity has passed, but there is no need to fret: If you're inclined to make bets on individual stocks, rather than own the entire sector (I own units in the BMO Equal Weight Banks exchange-traded fund, which gives me exposure to the Big Six), good deals can still be found.

Among the biggest banks, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce stands out with price-to-book and price-to-earnings multiples that are below the peer average. The stock also comes with a sector-leading 4.6-per-cent dividend yield.

CIBC has another thing going for it: The stock lagged the returns of its big bank peers in 2016. As I've pointed out in previous articles, lagging bank stocks have a tendency to close the gap with their peers, meaning that last year's underperformer tends to be this year's outperformer.

So far in 2017, CIBC has bucked this trend with a year-to-date gain of just 2.5 per cent – compared with a group average gain of 6.8 per cent. Perhaps this stock-picking strategy won't work this year. Or perhaps CIBC remains an outstanding buying opportunity.

But there's another reason to stick with bank stocks following the group's impressive rally. While valuations have risen from bargain levels, they're not excessive today. That means there is room for stocks to rise further with profit growth, dividend hikes and interest-rate increases – all of which seem likely.

There are good times to buy Canadian bank stocks; there are not bad times to own them.
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Financial insight in 9 minutes

Post by Webscout » Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:28 am

Financial insight in 9 minutes
If you want a real insight into financial gurus and their prognostications, the best primer is Bird and Fortune. Take a look at:
[YOUTUBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7BuFe_Asw0[/YOUTUBE]
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Housing stories Ontario Canada..

Post by Webscout » Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:04 am

Barrie senior says a high-interest mortgage has forced her to sell home
A taste of what high mortgage rates mean
A 70-year-old woman from Barrie, Ont., is selling her house because she can’t afford her mortgage. She’s paying a higher than usual rate because she’s a pensioner on a fixed income.
Me-What is wrong with this story?
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https://www.simcoe.com/community-story/7598478-barrie-senior-says-a-high-interest-mortgage-has-forced-her-to-sell-home/#.Wd4oPMyUz9p.twitter
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REAL ESTATE
They couldn’t believe their house was worth a million. Then they sold for nearly two
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https://torontolife.com/real-estate/couldnt-believe-house-worth-million-sold-nearly-two/
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Okay, a house can be an investment
A Toronto couple sells a house for $1.8-million. Purchase price in 1974: $64,500. In a recent column, I compared the costs of owning a house bought today with the likely sale price in 25 years. The two amounts were just about even.
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https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/deconstructing-the-idea-of-home-ownership-as-an-investment/article36500231/
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CDN:Buyer beware: The messy truth about investing in foreign securities

Post by Webscout » Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:42 am

Buyer beware: The messy truth about investing in foreign securities


GORDON PAPE
SPECIAL TO UTOPIA
2 HOURS AGO
OCTOBER 18, 2017
While the Liberal government has its focus on tax changes, one thing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his colleagues could do is to provide some clarity to the rules governing payments from foreign-based securities. Currently the whole area is a mess.

Mind you, this would involve negotiations with the U.S. and other countries. With the on-going NAFTA talks, the resumption of Trans-Pacific Partnership discussions, plus the on-going softwood lumber dispute, Canada may be getting a little thin on the ground when it comes to finding skilled representatives to present our case.

So I don't expect the frustrations of investors to be addressed any time soon. But that doesn't mean we should forget about the problem. Someone in Ottawa should put it on their to-do list for future follow-up.

The issue is the application of withholding tax on dividends/distributions earned from foreign securities. Unless you're a chartered accountant, it's unlikely you have any clue about how much tax you'll pay, if any.

Let's start with a simple example: dividends from a U.S. corporation. They are subject to a 15-per-cent withholding tax if paid into a non-registered account. That amount can be reclaimed as a foreign tax credit.

But suppose the account is registered.

Here's where it gets tricky.

Payments made to an RRSP or RRIF are tax-exempt under the Canada-U.S. Tax Treaty, as they are considered to be "retirement plans." But payments made to a TFSA or RESP don't have this protection. Although these plans are supposed to be tax-sheltered, the 15 per cent dividend withholding tax applies. Moreover, there is no mechanism for recovering it. Since the money was paid into a registered plan, the foreign tax credit does not apply.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. Different rules apply if the security you own is not shares in a corporation. For example, many people are attracted by the high yields offered by U.S. master limited partnerships. These mainly invest in the resource sector but they can be involved in other industries as well, such as amusement parks and financial services.

NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL-N) has a current yield of 13.3 per cent. Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP-N) yields 11.9 per cent. American Midstream Partners (AMID-N) generates a yield of 11.4 per cent.

Those are mouth-watering numbers to income-oriented investors. But there's a good reason why I have never recommended them: the tax consequences are onerous. Canadian investors in these partnerships are subject to a withholding tax of almost 40 per cent. Worse, Canadians who own shares in these securities are considered to be doing business in the U.S. and are supposed to file a tax return with the IRS as a result. That rule is rarely enforced but it is not something you want to get involved with!

Those are just a couple of the problems related to U.S.-based cash flow. Money from other jurisdictions also creates difficulties.

For example, a reader asked recently if he should avoid putting units of Brookfield Energy Partners LP (BEP.UN-T) in a tax-free savings account because he was worried about losing the 15 per cent withholding tax. However, BEP is not a U.S. company (it is a limited partnership based in Bermuda) so different rules apply. Moreover, it's impossible to tell from one year to the next what the tax consequences will be.

Jeff Finkelstein of RBC Dominion Securities has several clients who have positions in BEP. He says RBC withholds 15 per cent of the amount of the distribution that is considered "foreign income." However, no withholding tax has been levied on distributions from Brookfield Energy Partners because they are regarded as "return of capital". But there is no guarantee that will continue in the future. The composition of the distribution can change from year to year so there could be withholding down the road.

A sister partnership to BEP does have some withholding applied, but not on the entire amount. Brookfield Infrastructure LP (BIP.UN-T) has a small foreign income component in its distribution mix. The amount of withholding is miniscule, however – in 2016 it was about 5 cents in tax on every $100 of distribution. Of course, that could change this year.

The bottom line is that you should not make any assumptions about the taxation of foreign payments in your accounts. Check with your broker on withholding before making a purchase and remember that past history does not necessarily mean the same situation will apply going forward.

It would be great if Ottawa could negotiate taxation uniformity for foreign payments to Canadians. But until that happens, it's buyer beware.
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Today-Thursday Oct 19/17

Post by Webscout » Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:46 am

‘Mark to fantasy’ stock prices set stage for market volatility


SCOTT BARLOW
44 MINUTES AGO
OCTOBER 19, 2017 FOR UTOPIA
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

There are few, if any, new major market trends out there. The S&P/TSX Composite is up about 550 points in 2017. Royal Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia and Toronto-Dominion Bank account for over 300 points of that, but the mere thought of writing another "domestic banks are good investments" pieces makes me want to take a long nap.

China has yet again hit their economic growth targets, at least with official data and U.S. tech stocks continue to lead that market, recovering from a recent wobble in FANG stock performance.

There are nascent trends bubbling under the surface – peak gasoline demand, electric and autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence taking everyone's jobs – but they are not yet investable. Domestic interest rates and bond yields were climbing – threatening dividend investors - but Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter, among others, believes the best period of economic growth is behind us, and the upward pressure on rates is declining.

I feel like there's just not much to do in markets right now, but maybe I'm just bummed about the death in the Canadian family .

"China's Economic Growth Remains Intact as Party Leaders Meet" – Bloomberg

"Is "growing the pie" overrated, and does that explain why everything is terrible?" – Klein, FT Alphaville

"Oil slips but holds most gains on expected OPEC cuts" – Reuters

"World's Biggest Oil Traders See Wildly Diverging Crude Price" – Bloomberg

"Apple shares drop on iPhone 8 demand worries" – Reuters

=====

Gadfly warns investors that high profit expectations are already built in to equity valuations, setting the stage for disappointment and market volatility,

"the percentage of fund managers predicting the Goldilocks scenario surged to 48 percent, up from as low as 10 percent back at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, those predicting stagnation dropped to 34 percent. It was the first time the Goldilocks folks had eclipsed the stagnation predictors in more than six-and-a-half years -- and if history is any guide, it's not a good sign when this occurs or comes close to doing so."

"Wall Street Sees Goldilocks, So Beware of Bears" – Gadfly

=====

The 2-per-cent sell-off in Hong Kong stocks overnight was notable, and has spooked some professional investors,

"'People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan's warnings on rising household debt, and asset bubbles could have prompted the selling in Hong Kong. The PBOC chief reiterated criticism Chinese corporate leverage in Beijing Thursday amid the twice-a-decade Communist Party congress,'[wrote] Andrew Clarke, director of trading at Mirabaud (Asia) Ltd."

"What Analysts Are Saying About the Plunge in Hong Kong Stocks" – Bloomberg

Related: "Zhou Warns China Should Defend Against Threat of 'Minsky Moment'" – Bloomberg

"Stocks stumble off all-time highs, kiwi takes a dive" – Reuters

"@paul_dobson Everyone is reading about Catalonia but everyone is worried about Hong Kong #stocks #volatility bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @markets " – Twitter

=====

Tweet of the Day: "@Convertbond

October 19, 1987

Me: I need to sell x shares of IBM

Trader: $98 bid

Me: My machine says $119

Trader: Well, sell it to your machine then " – Twitter

Diversion: "Smartphones Are Weapons of Mass Manipulation, and This Guy Is Declaring War on Them" – MIT Technology Review
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Today -Friday Oct 20/17

Post by Webscout » Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:03 am

Toronto in the running as efforts to woo Amazon’s new HQ reach ludicrous proportions


SCOTT BARLOW
19 MINUTES AGO
OCTOBER 20, 2017 Special FOR Utopia
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

Amazon.com Inc. is set to choose a location for its new headquarters, and the Financial Times is reporting that cities' efforts to attract the business have reached ludicrous proportions,

"One town in Georgia offered to create a brand new city named 'Amazon' and appoint company founder Jeff Bezos as mayor in perpetuity. Meanwhile a business group in Tucson, Arizona, sent Amazon a 21-foot cactus as a token of its affection, which the company politely declined to accept. In New York, the Empire State Building was lit up with Amazon's trademark orange hue earlier this week.

"Other pitches, though, have focused on cold, hard cash, generating controversy over the generous tax subsidies that cities are offering as they try to outdo each other. In New Jersey, governor Chris Christie promised a staggering $7bn in incentives, should the company choose Newark as its base."

Atlanta is the betting favourite to land Amazon, but Toronto is apparently still in the running. Bloomberg notes ominously however that,

"Going to Canada holds political risks: Moving integral operations and workforce from the U.S. may step up tension with President Donald Trump."

"US cities shower Amazon with offers of tax breaks" – Financial Times

"'We are now and tomorrow': Toronto makes its pitch for Amazon's HQ2" – CBC

"Ten cities that may have the best shot at winning [Amazon's] second home" – Bloomberg

=====

Thankfully, I no longer own General Electric stock – it was switched to Honeywell at the urging of my broker. You'd think a multinational industrial giant like GE would be beneftting from rising global growth, but the company missed badly on earnings,

"The maker of jet engines and gas turbines reported that adjusted profit decreased 29 cents a share for the third quarter, falling well short of the 50-cent average of analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg. GE hasn't missed estimates by more than half a cent in over nine years… "

"GE Sinks as Deeper Slump Forces New CEO to Slash Profit Outlook" – Bloomberg

=====

A shortage of nurses in the U.S. is likely a harbinger of things to come as the health care needs of an aging population on both sides of the border stretch the system to its maximum,

"Short on staff: Nursing crisis strains U.S. hospitals" – Reuters

"The curious case of the $629 Band-Aid" – Vox

=====

I've been doing a lot of reading on Artificial Intelligence, but that didn't prevent a feeling of surprise at this Sky News report that AI systems are making investment decisions based on the facial expressions of central bankers in public appearances,

"Software uses facial expressions to 'predict' bank's policies" – Sky

" Once, robots assisted human workers. Now it's the other way around" – New Yorker

"McCain's latest surprise: Regulate Facebook" – Axios

-----

Tweet of the Day: " @Reuters WATCH: Billionaire Richard Branson targeted in $5 million scam 'straight out of le Carre' reut.rs/2gS7LHD via @ReutersTV – Twitter

Diversion: New report on Fake News from Pew Research strongly implies things will continue to deteriorate,

"Truth is no longer dictated by authorities, but is networked by peers. For every fact there is a counterfact and all these counterfacts and facts look identical online ... Those who do not think things will improve felt that humans mostly shape technology advances to their own, not-fully-noble purposes."

"The Future of Truth and Misinformation Online" – Pew Research
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