Biz Wax/Investing/Economy (BIE)

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These are the top things you should do in 2019 to reduce your stress about money

Post by Webscout » Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:01 pm

These are the top things you should do in 2019 to reduce your stress about money

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https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-these-are-the-top-things-you-should-do-in-2019-to-reduce-your-stress/

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Biz Wax/Investing/Economy -JANUARY 22, 2019

Post by Webscout » Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:24 am

Merrill Lynch’s ‘shocking’ forecast for the global economy
SCOTT BARLOW MARKET STRATEGIST
PUBLISHED 2 HOURS AGO
UPDATED JANUARY 22, 2019
FOR Utopia
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

Merrill Lynch economist Ethan Harris’s forecast for global economic growth results in a “shocking conclusion,”

“Leading indicators of [corporate capital investment] have been weakening for a year now, and in the fall U.S. indicators started to turn down as well… Another sign of trouble comes from our Global Fund Manager Survey. Investors have gotten increasingly pessimistic about growth ... This has triggered a rapid change in their advice on how companies should use their cash flow …

"A shocking conclusion: In the past year our biggest fear has been that policy shocks would undercut confidence and growth expectations, undercutting a potential capital spending recovery. The evidence is building that fear is reality. As the U.S. government shutdown, the trade war, Brexit and other policy uncertainties continue, the risks to growth and capital spending in particular will continue to rise. While there has been a mini-rally in the markets in the past two weeks, the risks to global growth remain skewed to the downside”

“@SBarlow_ROB ML: global growth risks skewed to the downside” – (research excerpt) Twitter

“Pessimism is dramatically rising among global CEOs, survey shows” – CNBC

“@SBarlow_ROB BMO: "China’s economic growth slowed in Q4, and for all of 2018 the 6.6% increase was the smallest gain in nearly three decades." - (research excerpt) Twitter

“Oil drops nearly 2 percent as China slowdown bites” – Reuters

“ @enlundm Korean exports appears to have collapsed in January - bad news for global EPS growth!” – (chart) Twitter

“German economic indicator falls to four-year low, Zew survey finds” – Financial Times (paywall)

***

Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson, who had a terrific forecasting year in 2018, believes investors shouldn’t trust the current rally,

“A rebound off extremes and hope around political headlines have helped move the market higher, but we don't like the risk-reward of chasing stocks at these levels. Technically, we think the odds of a full or partial retest of the December lows are still relatively high … The bulk of earnings season is still ahead and we expect further downside in revisions … there could still be 20%+ downside to earnings revisions breadth for Discretionary, Health Care, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities.”

“ @SBarlow_ROB MS's Wilson: "bulk of earnings season is still ahead and we expect further downside in revisions" – (research excerpt) Twitter

“@C_Barraud 🇺🇸 #SPX | Largest Cuts to S&P 500 EPS Estimates in 4 Years for 1st Half of 2019 - Factset Earnings Insight *Link (p.2): bit.ly/2Mvjmet “ – (chart) Twitter

“ @bespokeinvest The revenue beat rate for Q4 earnings is sitting below 50% at the moment while the EPS beat rate is at 69.5%. Not good. $$” – (chart) Twitter

***

MIT Technology Review warns U.S. environmentalists that they can’t deny science either with the New Green Deal,

“ In a letter to Congress last week, more than 600 environmental groups sought to define renewables even more narrowly, arguing that the ultimate proposal should also prohibit biomass and large-scale hydroelectric power. It adds that the groups … will oppose any climate legislation that promotes market-based mechanisms like carbon taxes or cap-and-trade programs…Everything we know from recent research indicates that nuclear, carbon capture, and hydropower are essential, and that carbon pricing could be among the most powerful tools for driving the transformation.”

“Let’s keep the Green New Deal grounded in science” – M.I.T. Technology Review

***

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Global economic growth is slowing

Post by Webscout » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:15 am

Global economic growth is slowing under the weight of feuding politicians, growing trade tensions and rising interest rates. Last week, China injected US$84-billion into its banking system in an attempt to boost lending in its decelerating economy.

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THE FUTILITY OF MARKET TIMING

Post by Webscout » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:46 am

THE FUTILITY OF MARKET TIMING

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https://www.albertbridgecapital.com/drew-views/2019/1/29/the-futility-of-market-timing

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Being a Millionaire

Post by Webscout » Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:09 pm

Being a Millionaire
SCOTT BARLOW-MARKET STRATEGIST Toronto Globe & Mail
The single best sentence written about personal finance in 2018 (in my opinion, of course) was from Collaborative Fund’s Morgan Housel: “When most people say they want to be a millionaire, what they really mean is ‘I want to spend a million dollars,’ which is literally the opposite of being a millionaire.”


That missive, which incorporates so much wisdom about human psychology and markets in a few words, was from Mr. Housel’s really, really long June 1 column “The Psychology of Money.”

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https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/

Thankfully, the author’s column last week was almost as useful and succinct by design. In “Short Money Rules”

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 https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/short-money-rules/ 
Mr. Housel provided 29 brief thoughts about markets and personal finance that start with “1. Above-average results require not being afraid of looking wrong. 2. Most people are afraid of looking wrong.“


The column covers a lot of ground providing general but valuable advice. “Being nice to people is the easiest career competitive advantage,” for instance. And there’s some stark warnings: “Bad investing is 40 per cent overconfidence, 40 per cent fees, 20 per cent denial that keeps it all going.”


My favourite of the 29 short rules is number 11, in part because it refers back to the 2018 quote about millionaires, “Wealth is what you don’t see – money that hasn’t been spent, cars that haven’t been bought, jewelry that hasn’t been purchased, stuff that hasn’t been bought.”


Rule number 11 is yet another restatement of the psychological difficulties behind successful investing and financial planning. It’s fun to dream about being filthy rich but the way to get there is basically avoiding the fun part of being rich – spending.

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Fraud---Investment tools etc

Post by Webscout » Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:16 pm

Scam Spotter Tool

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https://www.getsmarteraboutmoney.ca/tools/scam-spotter/
Get smarter about money

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https://www.getsmarteraboutmoney.ca/
4 signs of investment fraud

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https://www.getsmarteraboutmoney.ca/protect-your-money/fraud/protecting-against-fraud/4-signs-of-investment-fraud/

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Re: Biz Wax/Investing/Economy (BIE)

Post by Webscout » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:06 am

VW Increases Electric Vehicle Target by 50%

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-12/vw-s-audi-porsche-margins-sag-in-costly-shift-to-electric-era

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Canada-Lowest 10-year fixed mortgage rate ever-3.24%

Post by Webscout » Thu May 16, 2019 4:07 pm

Lowest 10-year fixed mortgage rate ever-3.24%- 10 Year
Fixed Mortgage Rate

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https://www.ratespy.com/best-mortgage-rates/10-year/fixed
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-a-major-bank-just-announced-the-lowest-10-year-fixed-mortgage-rate/

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