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  #531  
Old 11-16-2017, 02:05 PM
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Default One in two Canadians is a bundle of nerves about money

One in two Canadians is a bundle of nerves about money
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/one-in-two-canadians-is-a-bundle-of-nerves-about-money/article37000024/
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  #532  
Old 11-20-2017, 07:54 AM
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These are hedge fund managers’ favourite stocks


SCOTT BARLOW
41 MINUTES AGO
NOVEMBER 20, 2017 FOR UTOPIA
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

Citi's chief equity strategist, Montreal's own Tobias Levkovich, published a report detailing the most widely held stocks among global hedge funds. The first three stocks on the list – Alphabet Inc., Facebook Inc. and Microsoft Corp – aren't a big surprise. It's most likely these are the stocks managers are terrified not to own or risk underperforming their benchmarks.

There are a number of surprises on the list including Altaba Inc., NPX Semiconductors NV, Time Warner Inc. and MGM Resorts International.

"@SBarlow_ROB Citi: most widely held stocks by hedge funds" – (full table) Twitter

=====

Dramatic proclamations get all the attention - "The end of the oil age!", "Huge crude scarcity by 2022!" – but a Bernstein analyst, using the history of rubber production, expects a 'muddle-through' type future for oil demand. Apologies for the long excerpt, but it was my favourite read of the weekend by a big margin,

"Rubber is the story of an incumbent technology that, for all its excesses and booms and busts (just like my industry), still shares and competes in a market with a disruptive technology… Look to rubber. Look to hydropower. Look to coal and the pace of its death. Look to diesel and gasoline competing. Look to the whaling industry. Look to guano (if you like rubber you'll love bird feces!). Energy and raw materials and extractive industries are different from cameras, smartphones, chip design, and social trends. And the more that investors can accept that, the more willing they might be to consider that, although in the long run the oil sector will be dead (as Keynes pointed out, this is true for all of us), and in the short run the oil sector is hated, it's always the muddy middle where the money is to be made."

"@SBarlow_ROB ibid " – (research excerpt) Twitter

"Norway's $1 trillion oil fund is planning to get out of oil" – Quartz "

"Oil eases as traders and investors grow edgy ahead of OPEC" – Reuters

"Oil demand: Beware the gap" – Petroleum Economist

=====

The Economist reports that for U.S. marijuana producers, "Canada is where the money is,"

"Investors remain skittish about the [marijuana] industry, and accessing American stock markets is onerous. Instead, firms are moving north to Canada, listing themselves on Canadian stock markets to raise capital, and then investing the funds in American companies. One such company, iAnthus Capital Holdings, has raised nearly $50m says Hadley Ford, the co-founder. Mr Ford, a Wall Street veteran, found the northern relocation curious at first, but eventually adjusted. "It's like what John Dillinger said when asked about why he robbed banks," he says. "'That's where the money is.'"

"The price of cannabis is falling, suggesting a supply glut" – The Economist

=====

Gadfly's David Fickling was entertainingly harsh on Rio Tinto's management while providing a warning for investors in lithium miners,

"Rio Tinto Group isn't one of those companies[ that's good at acquisitions]. Indeed, it's hard to find an acquisition since its 2000 takeover of Australian iron ore miner North Ltd. that's not been a top-of-the-market catastrophe. That should make investors nervous about the prospect that a big new lithium deal could be forthcoming."

"Rio Tinto's M&A Madness" – Gadfly (Bloomberg)

=====

Tweet of the Day: "@RateSpy It's been decades since Canadians renewed mortgages at considerably higher rates " – (chart from DBRS) Twitter

Diversion: "Love and Respect For the Movies We Outgrew" – Film School Rejects
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  #533  
Old 11-21-2017, 09:10 AM
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Default Today-Tuesday Nov 21/17

‘Risks are to the downside’ for Canadian economy in 2018


SCOTT BARLOW
1 HOUR AGO
NOVEMBER 21, 2017 FOR UTOPIA
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

Merrill Lynch economist Carlos Capistran begins his 2018 growth forecast for Canada by explaining why the domestic economy grew twice as fast as expected in 2017 – basically a recovery in capital expenditure in the energy sector and stronger-than-expected global growth.

Mr. Capistran sees a 2.1-per-cent domestic expansion in 2018 but warns the risks are to the downside,

"The main external risk is US withdrawal from the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)… We see the chance of the US withdrawing from NAFTA as one in three, but the probability will increase if the Trump Administration does not pass tax reform, in our view… [If NAFTA is terminated] we estimate a 10% drop in Canadian exports to the US will lower GDP growth by 210bp.. The main domestic risk is the potential impact of higher interest rates on the balance sheet of highly indebted households, which can decelerate consumption more than we expect."

"@SBarlow_ROB ML: For Canadian economy 'risks are to the downside'" – (research excerpt) Twitter

"'Investors should protect themselves against NAFTA termination risk'" – Babad, Report on Business

See also: "Goldman 'Pretty Optimistic' for 2018 Despite China Debt Unknowns" – Bloomberg

=====

Merrill Lynch is also out with its oil price forecast for 2018,

"Global crude oil prices, particularly Brent, have firmed up more than we expected and we see Brent crude oil averaging $60 in 4Q17 and $56.50/bbl in 1H18, compared our previous forecasts of $54 and $52.50/bbl, respectively ... Our revised global oil supply and demand forecasts point to a sizeable deficit in 2017 of -230 thousand b/d and a more balanced market in 2018 "

"@SBarlow_ROB ML: Oil Outlook" – (research outlook) Twitter

=====

Bloomberg reports on a big jump in electric vehicle sales, thanks primarily to China,

"Sales of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids exceeded 287,000 units in the three months ended in September, 63 percent higher than the same quarter a year ago and up 23 percent from the second quarter, according to a report released Tuesday by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. China accounted for more than half of global sales as its market for electric cars doubled amid government efforts to curb pollution."

A lot of these Chinese cars are powered by coal-generated electricity, but it's progress nonetheless.

"Global Electric Car Sales Jump 63 Percent" – Bloomberg

=====

RBC is out with its Canadian market strategy for the coming year, but I didn't find "bullish on banks, cautiously optimistic on energy" to be all that helpful. If that's what they see, however, the lack of drama in the projections are not their fault,

"@SBarlow_ROB RBC recommended positioning for 2018 in Canada. Like banks, cautious on oil sector" – (research excerpt) Twitter.

=====

Tweet of the Day: "@LizAnnSonders In an Internet minute...(make that 452,001 Tweets sent) " – (graphic) Twitter

Diversion: "Dazzling Origami Creatures Designed To Impress" – News of the Month
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  #534  
Old 11-24-2017, 08:40 AM
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Default Investing-Rules of Thumb are Worthless

Investing-Rules of Thumb are Worthless
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  #535  
Old 11-24-2017, 08:41 AM
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Default CDN-Retail Sales

Retail sales rise less than expected in September; auto sales fall
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Retail Sales Disappoint Again as Canadian Growth Slows
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  #536  
Old 11-30-2017, 03:22 PM
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Default Dow Jones Industrial Average crosses 24,000 on Nov. 30.

U.S. markets pass another milestone, as investors remain fearless

Dow Jones Industrial Average crosses 24,000 on Nov. 30.

BRENDAN MCDERMID/REUTERS
LANDON THOMAS JR.
THE NEW YORK TIMES NEWS SERVICE
PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 30, 2017
UPDATED 15 MINUTES AGO
Propelled by enthusiasm for tax cuts, robust corporate earnings and a global economy with few weak spots, the Dow Jones industrial average blew by the 24,000 milestone on Wednesday for the first time.

In a year of stock market records, hitting the 24,000 mark is not the most historic. Yet the ease with which the barrier was cleared – the Dow closed up 332 points at 24,272 or 1.4 per cent – highlights the extent to which investors are willing to look past political uncertainty and pricey stock valuations and bet that the market will keep going up.

This was the fifth 1,000-point milestone for the Dow this year, first hitting 20,000 on Jan. 25. The latest large round number, 24,000, came barely a month after the previous milestone.

These thresholds have been secured – with the Dow up nearly 28 per cent so far this year – with virtually no sharp sell-offs.

This week's rally was propelled in part because of strong economic signals that show consumer confidence at a nearly 17-year high and promising results from retailers in the thick of the holiday shopping season. And it wasn't just the Dow. The Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at 2,647 on Thursday and the Nasdaq composite was up 0.8 per cent to 6,879.

DOW INDUSTRIALS24,272.35+6,444.11 (36.15%)
PAST THREE YEARS
DEC. 1, 2014
17,776.80
NOV. 30, 2017
24,272.35
SOURCE: BARCHART
For the month, the Dow is up 3.8 per cent, the S&P gained 2.8 per cent and the Nasdaq added 2.2 per cent.

Market experts say one of the distinguishing features of this long run, which started in March, 2009, is its ability to keep climbing a so-called wall of worry. Investors have suffered numerous frights, such as Britain voting to leave the European Union, geopolitical fears in North Korea and continuing political turmoil in Washington, but they have jumped back into the market after each stumble.

Ed Yardeni, an independent stock market strategist, has identified 58 of these small panic attacks since 2009. This year, he has not seen a single one.

"This is starting to feel like a melt up," Mr. Yardeni said, describing a feverish state of a bull market when investors discard all fears. "The market has climbed a wall of worry, but now it seems as if there is nothing to worry about."

And that, Mr. Yardeni said, is when you have to worry the most. Times such as these are when investors, no longer cautious and discerning, are especially vulnerable to negative surprises.

So far this year, there have not been many.

The VIX index, a gauge of expected stock market volatility in the future, rose Thursday but was still trading at just more than 11 – near its recent lows.

The latest missile scare from North Korea, coming after so many previous flare-ups, has been largely ignored.

Instead, investors ranging from sophisticated hedge funds to small retail accounts have chosen to focus on the tax cut package moving through Congress this week. Its centrepiece is a major reduction in taxes for corporations, which would be a boon to profits – and therefore share prices.

More than anything, investors have been inspired by a global economic boom – encompassing Europe, Asia, emerging markets and the United States – coupled with little sign of inflation.

Traditionally, bull markets come to an end when, after a sustained period of growth, inflation forces central banks to raise interest rates.

Now, with inflation relatively stagnant and the lingering anxieties of the 2008 financial crisis fading, investors are not ready to contemplate the end of the party.

"I used to call my clients fully invested bears," Mr. Yardeni said. "Now they are giddy bulls – how could they not be?"
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  #537  
Old 01-10-2018, 12:36 PM
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Default 10 Things Investors Can Expect in 2018

10 Things Investors Can Expect in 2018
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  #538  
Old 01-11-2018, 10:56 AM
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Default Hype Meets Reality as Electric Car Dreams Run Into Metal Crunch

Hype Meets Reality as Electric Car Dreams Run Into Metal Crunch
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  #539  
Old 01-12-2018, 10:22 AM
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Default Housing Canada-Real Life Ratio -FYI

Housing Canada-Real Life Ratio -FYI
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  #540  
Old 01-16-2018, 02:32 PM
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Default The markets appear to be burning off some froth

The markets appear to be burning off some froth
Scott Barlow
SCOTT BARLOW
PUBLISHED JANUARY 16, 2018
UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Special to Utopia
A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, industrial metals and silver are all getting hit Tuesday morning, and I suspect this is all related.

Bloomberg's Luke Kawa pointed out that the MSCI World (equity) Index is more overbought now than at any time since 1987, and investors are rapidly pouring assets into the Blackrock's iShares USA Momentum Factor ETF (which buys stocks with the best price momentum.)

It looks very much like markets got ahead of themselves and some froth is now burning off after a solid year to date ramp up. The good news is that, where the sell-off is merely technical, things should settle down.

"Investors Place Record Bet that Market Winners Will Keep Winning" – Bloomberg

" Copper Falls Most in 6 Weeks as Metals Rally Starts to Give" – Bloomberg

"Bitcoin Tumbles 20% as Fears of Cryptocurrency Crackdown Linger" – Bloomberg

"2018's unbridled stock surge may signal the 'overshoot' phase of this bull market is underway" – Santoli, CNBC

Related: "No, Ripple Isn't the Next Bitcoin" – M.I.T. Technology Review

=====

An informative report from Morgan Stanley details the importance of crude futures markets, which are 50 times the size of physical trade, in determining the oil price,

"The 'paper' oil market is 50x the physical market: As a starting point, consider this: world oil consumption is ~98 mb/d, but the barrels that leave the country in which they are produced - i.e. the internationally traded market - is just ~43 mb/d. At the same time, oil futures trading in Brent and WTI alone adds up to ~2,000 mb/d. In short, the 'paper' oil market is roughly 50x larger than the physical market. Financial in- and outflows can drive the market away from long-run marginal cost for some time.

"The current level of backwardation in oil futures curves is still a relatively recent phenomenon. If this persists for an extended period, we expect it will continue to attract inflows into the futures market. As these flows can be much larger than physical flows, this should drive oil futures prices higher during the course of this year."

"@SBarlow_ROB MS: Oil futures market, 50x size of physical, to drive crude prices higher" – (longer research excerpt) Twitter

"Brent oil falls by $1 but demand underpins near $70/barrel" – Reuters

====

I am only starting to work my way through those of these I didn't read at the time. I am particuolarly interested in "Five-Year Expected Returns 2018-2022: Coming of Age", and "Artificial Intelligence: It's Not the Future, It's Now (Capital Group)",

"The Top 20 Investment Papers of 2017" – Savvy Investor

=====

Business Insider torques up the headline, as is their want, but this Goldman Sachs list of fastest growing companies is a worthwhile starting point for further research. ConocoPhilips is the #1 pick and Adobe Systems is an interesting pick,

"These 13 stocks will see profits explode higher in 2018" – Business Insider

====

Tweet of the Day: "@RateSpy "Based on the economic environment alone, the case for higher interest rates in Canada is airtight."—@scotiabank gbm.scotiabank.com/scpt/gbm/scoti " - Twitter

Diversion: "Why it is so perilous to mess with the price of bread" – Macleans
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